Public opinion
Recent polling shows opinion on independence roughly evenly split. Of the last four polls, three put Yes narrowly ahead; the most recent, from YouGov, put No ahead.1
Polling average
| Pollster (client) | Fieldwork | Sample | Yes | No | Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Find Out Now (The National)2 | 4–10 Aug 2026 | 1,020 | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Survation (Fore Energy Ltd)3 | 9–14 Oct 2026 | 1,003 | 48% | 40% | 12% |
| Norstat (Believe in Scotland)4 | 15–18 Sep 2026 | 1,001 | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| YouGov5 | 29 Sep–5 Oct 2026 | 1,060 | 39% | 44% | 17% |
These are four polls, not an average. We will show an average once we have recent polls from more pollsters.
Our method
- We only include polls by members of the British Polling Council, which publish their tables.
- We use each pollster's most recent poll, so no single company dominates the average.
- We show results both with and without “don't know”, and we give the fieldwork dates, not the publication dates.
- Polls have margins of error. A difference of a few points is usually not meaningful.
Sources
- Institute for Government, Scottish independence (explainer), updated 29 May 2026.
- Find Out Now, Polling in Scotland for The National (fieldwork 4–10 August 2026).
- Survation, Scotland data tables (fieldwork 9–14 October 2026), commissioned by Fore Energy Ltd.
- Norstat, Political polling tables, September 2026 (fieldwork 15–18 September 2026, commissioned by Believe in Scotland).
- YouGov, Scotland political snapshot, October 2026 (fieldwork 29 September – 5 October 2026); full tables: data tables.