How independence could happen

Where things stand

A lawful independence referendum needs the agreement of the UK Parliament. In 2022 the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot legislate for one on its own.¹ On 26 May 2026 MSPs voted 72–55 to ask the UK Government for a Section 30 order. The UK Government has declined.^{1, 2}

Key dates

1. 1999The Scottish Parliament is established under the Scotland Act 1998.³
2. 18 September 2014Independence referendum, held after a Section 30 order. It was held under the Scotland Act 1998 (Modification of Schedule 5) Order 2013.⁵ Scotland voted to remain in the UK: 55.3% No (2,001,926), 44.7% Yes (1,617,989), on a turnout of 84.6%.⁶
3. 31 January 2020The UK leaves the European Union.
4. 23 November 2022The UK Supreme Court rules that a referendum bill is outside the Scottish Parliament's powers.⁷
5. 7 May 2026Scottish Parliament election: the SNP (58 seats) and Scottish Greens (15) together hold 73 of 129 seats.⁴
6. 26 May 2026MSPs vote 72–55 to request a Section 30 order. The UK Government declines.¹
7. 28 August 2026The Scottish Government publishes a draft Independence Referendum Bill. It proposes the 2014 question, “Should Scotland be an independent country?”, and would be introduced only once the UK Government transfers the power.⁸
8. 9 September 2026The Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, tells the Commons that Scotland is in “exactly the same situation” as Northern Ireland, and that he is not aware of majority public support for another referendum.⁹
9. 10 September 2026The First Minister, John Swinney, writes to the Prime Minister. He proposes a legal route to a referendum like Northern Ireland's.¹⁰
10. 14 September 2026In Cardiff, the First Minister signs a memorandum with the leaders of Wales and Northern Ireland committing their parties to self-determination, saying no Westminster government "has the right to block democracy".¹¹ He also predicts the Prime Minister "will be the last prime minister of the United Kingdom".¹²
11. 22 September 2026MSPs vote 84–18 for a motion, moved by the First Minister, that "Scotland is a nation that has a right to decide its own future". Scottish Labour and the Scottish Greens back it alongside the SNP; Conservative and Liberal Democrat amendments are defeated.¹³¹⁴
12. 29 September 2026In his first Labour conference speech as Prime Minister, Andy Burnham says he intends to be "not the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom but the first to rewire it". The First Minister responds that the Prime Minister should "let us have a referendum, and we'll see who's right".¹⁵¹⁶
13. 14 October 2026At its party conference in Aberdeen, the SNP launches a "Choose Scotland" campaign, which the First Minister calls "the biggest campaign since the referendum", including an independence survey to around 1.5 million people and a "national day of action" on St Andrew's Day.¹⁷
14. 16 October 2026In his first major speech in Scotland as Prime Minister, Andy Burnham offers further devolution, including localised employment support, while saying politicians should "move beyond the constitutional questions" — appearing to rule out a second referendum.¹⁸
15. 17 October 2026The First Minister tells the SNP conference "the stars are aligning" for independence. The Scottish Conservative leader, Russell Findlay, calls him "a broken record" and a "star-gazing separatist".¹⁹

The steps that would be needed

This is a general outline based on the 2014 process. It is not a prediction, and no timetable has been agreed.

1. Agreement on a referendum: a Section 30 order, or another route agreed with the UK Parliament.
2. Referendum legislation setting the question, the date and who can vote.
3. A regulated campaign, overseen by the Electoral Commission.
4. The vote.
5. If the vote were for independence: negotiations with the UK Government on issues such as debt, assets, the border, defence and pensions.
6. Independence day, followed by transition arrangements such as applying to join international organisations.

The legal background is explained on the constitutional position page.