How independence could happen

Where things stand

A lawful independence referendum needs the agreement of the UK Parliament. In 2022 the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot legislate for one on its own.¹ On 26 May 2026 MSPs voted 72–55 to ask the UK Government for a Section 30 order. The UK Government has declined.^{1, 2}

Key dates

1. 1999The Scottish Parliament is established under the Scotland Act 1998.³
2. 18 September 2014Independence referendum, held after a Section 30 order. It was held under the Scotland Act 1998 (Modification of Schedule 5) Order 2013.⁵ Scotland voted to remain in the UK: 55.3% No (2,001,926), 44.7% Yes (1,617,989), on a turnout of 84.6%.⁶
3. 31 January 2020The UK leaves the European Union.
4. 23 November 2022The UK Supreme Court rules that a referendum bill is outside the Scottish Parliament's powers.⁷
5. 7 May 2026Scottish Parliament election: the SNP (58 seats) and Scottish Greens (15) together hold 73 of 129 seats.⁴
6. 26 May 2026MSPs vote 72–55 to request a Section 30 order. The UK Government declines.¹

The steps that would be needed

This is a general outline based on the 2014 process. It is not a prediction, and no timetable has been agreed.

1. Agreement on a referendum: a Section 30 order, or another route agreed with the UK Parliament.
2. Referendum legislation setting the question, the date and who can vote.
3. A regulated campaign, overseen by the Electoral Commission.
4. The vote.
5. If the vote were for independence: negotiations with the UK Government on issues such as debt, assets, the border, defence and pensions.
6. Independence day, followed by transition arrangements such as applying to join international organisations.

The legal background is explained on the constitutional position page.