Why Not Scotland The sourced case for Scottish independence

Democracy and the road to a referendum

Last checked Suggest a correction

The case for independence

  • In May 2026 voters elected 73 pro-independence MSPs out of 129: the SNP won 58 seats and the Scottish Greens 15.7
  • The Scottish Parliament voted 72–55 to ask for the power to hold a new referendum.4
  • The most recent Find Out Now poll put support for independence at 50%, with 44% against.8

How it works now

The Scotland Act 1998 set up the Scottish Parliament. Anything not listed as “reserved” in Schedule 5 is devolved. Reserved matters include the constitution, including the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England, as well as defence, foreign affairs and monetary policy.1

Section 30 of the Act lets the list of reserved matters be changed by an Order in Council, which needs the approval of both parliaments. A Section 30 order was used to allow the 2014 independence referendum.2

The challenges

  • In 2022 the UK Supreme Court ruled that Holyrood cannot hold a referendum without Westminster's agreement.3
  • The UK Government has declined the request for a Section 30 order.4
  • The Labour Party states: “Labour does not support independence or another referendum.”6

How Scotland would meet them

  • It argues that the result of the May 2026 election gives it a mandate for a new referendum, and has asked the UK Government for a Section 30 order.5

Source: Scottish Parliament Official Report, 26 May 2026

What independent analysts say

The Institute for Government notes that, following the 2022 ruling, a lawful referendum requires Westminster's agreement.4

Still to be settled

Is there any route to a referendum without a Section 30 order?

This has not been settled, and we have not yet found reliable published analysis. We will add sourced material when it becomes available.

What happens if the UK Government keeps refusing?

This has not been settled, and we have not yet found reliable published analysis. We will add sourced material when it becomes available.

Sources

  1. Scotland Act 1998, Schedule 5 (Reserved matters).
  2. The Scotland Act 1998 (Modification of Schedule 5) Order 2013, made 12 February 2013.
  3. UK Supreme Court, Reference by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998 [2022] UKSC 31, 23 November 2022.
  4. Institute for Government, Scottish independence (explainer), updated 29 May 2026.
  5. Scottish Parliament, Official Report, 26 May 2026.
  6. Labour Party, Scotland: reset our politics.
  7. SPICe (Scottish Parliament Information Centre), “The results are in”, 9 May 2026.
  8. Find Out Now, Scottish polling for The National.