Why Not Scotland The sourced case for Scottish independence

Democracy and the road to a referendum

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The case for independence

  • In May 2026 voters elected 73 pro-independence MSPs out of 129: the SNP won 58 seats and the Scottish Greens 15.23
  • The Scottish Parliament voted 72–55 to ask for the power to hold a new referendum.4
  • On 22 September 2026, a broader motion that Scotland has a right to decide its own future passed 84–18, backed by Labour and the Greens as well as the SNP.1516
  • For the first time, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all have First Ministers committed to self-determination, and on 14 September 2026 the three signed a joint memorandum to that effect.12
  • The most recent Find Out Now poll put support for independence at 50%, with 44% against.24

How it works now

The Scotland Act 1998 set up the Scottish Parliament. Anything not listed as “reserved” in Schedule 5 is devolved. Reserved matters include the constitution, including the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England, as well as defence, foreign affairs and monetary policy.1

Section 30 of the Act lets the list of reserved matters be changed by an Order in Council, which needs the approval of both parliaments. A Section 30 order was used to allow the 2014 independence referendum.2

On 28 August 2026 the Scottish Government published a draft Independence Referendum Bill, proposing the 2014 question, “Should Scotland be an independent country?”. It would be introduced only once the UK Government transfers the power.7 On 10 September 2026 the First Minister wrote to the Prime Minister proposing a legal route to a referendum like Northern Ireland's.11 A separate Private Member's Bill at Westminster, the Scotland (Independence Referendum) Bill, has its second reading scheduled for 27 November 2026.8

On 14 September 2026 the First Minister signed a memorandum with the leaders of Wales and Northern Ireland committing their parties to self-determination, saying no Westminster government “has the right to block democracy or undermine the principle that our people will decide their own future”.12 He also predicted that the Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, “will be the last prime minister of the United Kingdom”.13 On 22 September 2026 MSPs voted 84–18 for a motion that “Scotland is a nation that has a right to decide its own future”, with Scottish Labour and the Scottish Greens backing it alongside the SNP.1516 At the Labour Party conference on 29 September 2026, the Prime Minister said he intended to be “not the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom but the first to rewire it”.17 The First Minister responded that the Prime Minister should “let us have a referendum, and we'll see who's right”.18

At its party conference in Aberdeen on 14 October 2026, the SNP launched a “Choose Scotland” campaign, which the First Minister called “the biggest campaign since the referendum and what will be the most sophisticated, pro-independence campaign Scotland has ever seen”, including an independence survey to around 1.5 million people and a “national day of action” on St Andrew's Day.19 Two days later, in his first major speech in Scotland as Prime Minister, Andy Burnham offered to “move on from the old politics of conflict” and devolve further powers, including localised employment support, while saying politicians should “move beyond the constitutional questions”.20 On 17 October 2026 the First Minister told the SNP conference “the stars are aligning” for independence; the Scottish Conservative leader, Russell Findlay, called him “a broken record” and a “star-gazing separatist”.21

The challenges

  • In 2022 the UK Supreme Court ruled that Holyrood cannot hold a referendum without Westminster's agreement.3
  • After the SNP's October 2026 conference, the polling analyst Professor Sir John Curtice said the SNP's leadership of the independence movement “is in doubt”: only around three in five Yes supporters back the SNP on the Holyrood constituency vote, and just 44% of Yes supporters think John Swinney is doing a good job.25
  • The UK Government has declined the request for a Section 30 order.4
  • The Labour Party states: “Labour does not support independence or another referendum.”6
  • On 9 September 2026 the Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, told the Commons that Scotland is in “exactly the same situation” as Northern Ireland. He said he was not aware of majority public support for another referendum, “and until that changes, there will not be one.”9
  • Opponents called the draft Independence Referendum Bill a waste of time and resources (Scotland in Union) and a distraction from public services (Scottish Conservatives).10
  • The Scottish Conservative leader, Russell Findlay, said the 22 September vote was “holding Scotland back”, and the Reform leader, Malcolm Offord, called it “Groundhog Day” and a “never-endum” question.16
  • Responding to the Cardiff pact, the Prime Minister's spokesperson said it was “premature to call for independence referenda until public opinion clearly shifts”.14
  • Visiting Scotland for the first time as Prime Minister, Andy Burnham said politicians should “move beyond the constitutional questions” and focus on “solutions for people right now”, offering further devolution — including localised employment support — instead of a second referendum.20
  • Scottish Labour's deputy leader, Dame Jackie Baillie, called the SNP's new “Choose Scotland” campaign “a distraction” from its record in government.22

How Scotland would meet them

  • It argues that the result of the May 2026 election gives it a mandate for a new referendum, and has asked the UK Government for a Section 30 order.5

Source: Scottish Parliament Official Report, 26 May 2026

What independent analysts say

The Institute for Government notes that, following the 2022 ruling, a lawful referendum requires Westminster's agreement.4

Still to be settled

Is there any route to a referendum without a Section 30 order?

The 2022 Supreme Court ruling applies to the Scottish Parliament legislating on its own; it does not stop the UK Parliament passing ordinary legislation to authorise a referendum.3 One such route already exists: the Scotland (Independence Referendum) Bill, a Private Member's Bill at Westminster, has its second reading scheduled for 27 November 2026.8 On 10 September 2026 the First Minister wrote to the Prime Minister asking how the two governments could agree “a legal mechanism, as exists in Northern Ireland”, for triggering a referendum, but no such mechanism for Scotland has been agreed.11 Both routes still depend on the UK Parliament's agreement; neither is a way for Holyrood to hold a referendum without Westminster's consent.

What happens if the UK Government keeps refusing?

This has not been settled, and we have not yet found reliable published analysis. We will add sourced material when it becomes available.

Sources

  1. Scotland Act 1998, Schedule 5 (Reserved matters).
  2. The Scotland Act 1998 (Modification of Schedule 5) Order 2013, made 12 February 2013.
  3. UK Supreme Court, Reference by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998 [2022] UKSC 31, 23 November 2022.
  4. Institute for Government, Scottish independence (explainer), updated 29 May 2026.
  5. Scottish Parliament, Official Report, 26 May 2026.
  6. Labour Party, Scotland: reset our politics.
  7. Scottish Government, Draft Independence Referendum Bill, 28 August 2026; see also news release.
  8. Scotland (Independence Referendum) Bill, UK Parliament (Private Member’s Bill), second reading scheduled 27 November 2026.
  9. Hansard, House of Commons, Engagements, 9 September 2026.
  10. The Scotsman, “A complete waste of time”: SNP publishes new Scottish independence referendum bill, 28 August 2026.
  11. Scottish Government, First Minister writes to Prime Minister on Scotland’s right to decide, 10 September 2026.
  12. Al Jazeera, Leaders of Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland unite for self-determination, 14 September 2026.
  13. STV News, Burnham will be last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, says Swinney, 14 September 2026.
  14. Axios, UK union: Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, 14 September 2026.
  15. Scottish Parliament, Official Report, 22 September 2026.
  16. The Highland Times, Holyrood Backs Scotland's Right to Decide its Own Future, 23 September 2026.
  17. Labour Party, Andy Burnham's speech to Labour Party Conference 2026 (official text), 29 September 2026.
  18. STV News, report on the Burnham–Swinney exchange at the Labour Party conference, 29 September 2026.
  19. Press Association, reported by SNP to launch “biggest independence campaign” since 2014 referendum, 14 October 2026.
  20. ITV News, PM offers Scotland more powers in bid to move past “old politics of conflict”, 16 October 2026.
  21. The Scotsman (Amy Watson), “Stars are aligning” for Scottish independence, Swinney to tell SNP conference, 17 October 2026.
  22. ITV News, Burnham urged to “bring it on” and allow second Scottish independence vote, 15 October 2026.
  23. SPICe (Scottish Parliament Information Centre), “The results are in”, 9 May 2026.
  24. Find Out Now, Scottish polling for The National.
  25. Ben Borland, Scottish Daily Express, Poll disaster for John Swinney as top analyst says his “SNP leadership is in doubt”, 25 October 2026.