Why Not Scotland The sourced case for Scottish independence

The economy and trade

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The case for independence

  • Comparable independent European countries are more productive than the UK: in 2020, GDP per hour worked ranged from 111.8 in Ireland to 61.3 in the UK.7
  • The Scottish Government plans a Building a New Scotland Fund of up to £20 billion over the first decade of independence.5
  • Apart from Ireland, all ten comparator countries invest more in research and development than the UK.7

How it works now

Most economic levers, including monetary policy, most business taxation, trade policy and employment law, are reserved to Westminster.3

The rest of the UK is Scotland's largest export market: 60% of Scotland's exports in 2023, an estimated £55.4 billion.4

The challenges

  • The rest of the UK is Scotland's biggest market: 60% of Scotland's exports in 2023, worth an estimated £55.4 billion.4
  • The IFS said the proposed fund would in practice be “financed by additional borrowing”.6

How Scotland would meet them

  • A Building a New Scotland Fund of “up to £20 billion over the first decade of independence”, to “reinvest oil and gas revenues, alongside other windfall income”, and to borrow if necessary.5
  • Trade with the rest of the UK would be governed by the EU–UK trade arrangements in place at the time.2

Source: Building a New Scotland, Papers 3 and 7

What independent analysts say

The IFS said the fund would in practice be “financed by additional borrowing”, given the deficits expected in the early years, and that faster growth was “far from certain and would be easier said than done”.6

Still to be settled

What checks would there be on goods crossing the border with England?

This has not been settled, and we have not yet found reliable published analysis. We will add sourced material when it becomes available.

How reliable are comparisons with other small countries?

This has not been settled, and we have not yet found reliable published analysis. We will add sourced material when it becomes available.

Sources

  1. Scottish Government, Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy with independence (Paper 3), 17 October 2022.
  2. Scottish Government, Building a New Scotland: An independent Scotland in the EU (Paper 7), 17 November 2023.
  3. Scotland Act 1998, Schedule 5 (Reserved matters).
  4. Scottish Government, Exports Statistics Scotland 2023, published 25 November 2025.
  5. Scottish Government, Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy with independence, “The Building a New Scotland Fund”, 17 October 2022.
  6. Institute for Fiscal Studies (David Phillips), An immediate response to the Scottish Government’s paper on independence and the Scottish economy, 17 October 2022.
  7. Scottish Government, Independence in the modern world. Wealthier, happier, fairer: why not Scotland? — 10 key facts (Paper 1), 14 June 2022.